[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 221435
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

CINDY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND
35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/23.  ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT
25-30 KT UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY WILL NOT MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MAKE AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT COOL TO LESS THAN 15C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 45.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 47.6N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 50.6N  25.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 53.2N  17.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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