[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BRET HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY AT 22/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BRET AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 35.6N 68.1W. BRET IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES BRET.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR
43.5N 42.8W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 24 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM
42N TO 43N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N24W 10N26W 7N26W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N50W 12N52W 7N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N82W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
19N...TO 16N5W 16N15W 12N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W
TO 6N35W AND 8N51W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN AND 13W AND
14W...INCLUDING SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 34W AND 42W...AND 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 25N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAKENING NEAR 21N90W NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 22N100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 94W.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...AS BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS
IN GENERAL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
69W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N82W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION/REMNANT
RAINSHOWERS SPECIFICALLY ARE FROM 19N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT IS NOT EASY
TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE 21N77W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND WHICH IS JUST RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 26N56W 22N58W 19N61W 15N61W NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N50W 12N52W 7N52W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 30N50W 15N61W
LINE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N46W TO 33N57W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N67W...TO
A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 32N67W COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N50W TO 26N56W 22N58W 19N61W
15N61W NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N50W
12N52W 7N52W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 30N50W 15N61W LINE.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W
TO 30N50W 27N68W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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