[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 220256
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

THE SYSTEM LOST ESSENTIALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BRET HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING
WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF
BRET...THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH
SOONER THAN THAT.

BRET HAS ACCELERATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/12...PERHAPS
A LITTLE FASTER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 35.6N  68.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 36.9N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 38.4N  61.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 40.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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