[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Jul 21 09:40:27 CDT 2011
WTNT42 KNHC 211439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
WHILE BRET CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH
OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING
ORGANIZATION AS IT REMAINS AFFECTED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
TROPICAL-STORM WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT RECENTLY OBSERVED AT
BUOY 41048. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. BRET SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINATION IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 33.8N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 36.8N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 38.6N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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