[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 21/0300 UTC IS ABOUT
400 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...NEAR 32.8N 72.6W. BRET IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 08 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. ONE AREA OF RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 32N71.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N57W TO 33N62W TO 31N68W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
53W AND 72W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 21/0300 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N
51.6W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 37N TO 39N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 34N TO 37N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W...AND
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 13N77W. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 19N74W CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W
FROM 17N TO 22N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
16N...TO 18N10W 9N30W 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N22W
TO 5N30W 5N45W...AND FROM 6N49W INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 85W AND 106W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO. ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 26N102W.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N74W OFF
THE COAST OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF
HAITI. RAINSHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...60 NM AWAY FROM
MAINLAND CUBA INTO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ONE CELL
OF STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE
VENEZUELA BORDER WITH COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND WESTERN
JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BRET IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA. THE POSITION OF BRET IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 29N50W 27N64W 25N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N34W TO 20N32W TO 10N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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