[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 210257
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BRET HAS LOST MUCH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF ITS EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND NOW ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN.  OBJECTIVE 3-HOUR
ADT NUMBERS ARE CURRENTLY T2.6...AND THE RAW NUMBERS ARE MUCH
LOWER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 35 KT.

NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER BRET IS BRUTAL.  THE SHIPS/LGEM DIAGNOSTICS
SHOW ABOUT 30-35 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THESE
VALUES COULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CYCLONE...BRET WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY MIRRORS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS...AND BRET COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.

AFTER JOGGING TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BRET IS NOW
WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTH.  THE AVERAGE MOTION REMAINS
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BIT OF AN ACCELERATION AT 045/8.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ACCELERATION
WITHIN FASTER MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
TO BE CLOSE TO THE FASTER-MOVING GFS AND ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 32.8N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 33.9N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 35.5N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 37.2N  65.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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