[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/1500 UTC IS NEAR
31.8N 73.7W MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 255 MI...
415 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA... OR ABOUT 520
MI...840 KM W OF BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. THERE IS 20 KT OF NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 71W-75W.

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM EAST OF BERMUDA AT 34N55W.
IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE
CENTER FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 53W-56W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT
20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 75W-78W.

A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 18N15W TO
THE COAST AT 11N15W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N28W TO 12N36W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. WIDELY
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER W OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 88W-95W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF...
THE CENTRAL GULF...AND S FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA
TO BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 7N75W TO 9N80W TO BEYOND 10N86W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS S OFF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 19N88W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BRET IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC MOVING NE...WHILE ANOTHER
DEEPENING LOW IS FURTHER E MOVING NE. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1035 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N30W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N60W. EXPECT
...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT WITH CONVECTION AND BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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