[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N
75.9W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-
TROPOSPHERIC AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE
CENTER FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 75W-78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING W AT
20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 63W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 57W-60W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 25N0W TO 18N10W TO
THE COAST AT 19N16W THEN CONTINUES S TO 13N20W TO 13N30W TO
8N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N39W TO 8N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT
9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
10W-40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 27W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF
TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
ALONG 20N94W 16N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER E TEXAS ALONG 31N94W 28N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 94W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-97W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W
GULF AND S TEXAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA
FROM 9N74W TO BEYOND 10N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS S OFF
JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 74W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECT...
THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BRET IS E OF THE N FLORIDA MOVING NNE. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N54W 31N60W 33N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N52W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE T.S.
BRET MOVES NE...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AT 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net