[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 19/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N
76.4W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...
AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A GENERAL
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR BRET FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 7N33W 17N35W
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF
A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM
22N76W TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
15N76W...AND THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT
IS NEAR THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
IT IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
JUST THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 22N5W 20N12W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 11N28W 9N33W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N33W TO 6N40W AND 6N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24W...AND WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N42W 6N45W 8N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES ON TOP OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE APPARENT
PRECIPITATION. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
18N95.5W MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM DORA...THAT IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W ARE TO THE EAST OF
A 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEY
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 15N56W 20N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. THIS WAVE
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 32N43W 15N48W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
THE 21N70W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM 22N76W TO
WESTERN JAMAICA TO 14N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N76W...AND
THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 19N83W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N85W...INLAND TO THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE
BORDER OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA PRECIPITATION FROM SIX
HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W...IN THE AREA
THROUGH WHICH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PASSING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N80W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG 31N60W 33N66W 34N69W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 21N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 17N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 25N44W AND 15N48W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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