[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100 UTC
MOVING NNE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N30W TO 10N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THE WAVE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG
62 W S OF 21N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO N OF 15N E OF 68W...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN
S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 22N74W TO
12N77W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. WAVE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA...
ENTERING THE EAST ATLC ALONG 14N17W 12N24W 9N33W 7N43W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT EXTENDING TO 9N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. WITHIN THIS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED TO THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO 27N92W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-89W...
ASSOCIATED TO AN NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SE CONUS SEA BOARD INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A BROAD OMEGA RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IOWA DOMINATES THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
EVENING. THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NE BASIN W OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS
WAVE IS OVER THE FAR SE BASIN S OF MARTINIQUE E OF 63W. THE
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 75W
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA
S OF 14N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW DOTTING THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W
ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR OUR NORTHERN DISCUSSION
AREA ANALYZED FROM 32N70W ALONG 31N60W 32N53W BECOMING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS N TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY
STRONG 1033 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N30W...LEAVING THE
ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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