[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 18/1200 UTC IS NEAR 27.4N
77.5W MOVING NORTHEAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF BRET IS NORTHEASTERLY DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 320 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W
AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A 30N41W 15N48W UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...A 25N64W-TO-HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT
NEAR 32N55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N64W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
14N81W AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVE EASILY MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N
TO 25N4W 20N11W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 10N24W 7N30W AND
5N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N39W TO 2N47W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN THE
AFRICA COAST AND 26W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 31N73W AND 29N79W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 22N100W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
BE INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND
HISPANIOLA...TO 16N76W...TO 14N81W...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO THE COAST ALONG
74W...THROUGH 10N80W...BEYOND THE BORDER AREA OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA THROUGH 9N83W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 33N68W
31N73W 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N84W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N64W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N68W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 67W AND 71W...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
22N45W TO 15N48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.
MIATCMAT2

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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