[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 18/0600 UTC IS NEAR 27.1N
78.0W MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF BRET IS NORTHEASTERLY DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N. IT JUST FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N40W 16N48W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N67W BEYOND HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N
TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N PASSING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. THE SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN WESTERN HAITI MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER
HISPANIOLA THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N
TO 25N4W 20N11W...EXITING AFRICA ALONG 14N17W 9N26W 5N27W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W
AND 22W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF GUATEMALA...ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 98W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WITHIN
120 TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N67W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING THE
WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR
12N83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
FROM 10N TO THE COAST ALONG 74W...THROUGH 10N80W...BEYOND THE
BORDER AREA OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH 9N83W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN HAITI.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA ALONG 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N67W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 30N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N45W TO 16N48W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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