[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W MOVING
SW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 26W FROM 11N-18N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 22N50W TO 16N52W TO
10N53W MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N TO
MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO
THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO
6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN
95W-100W MOVING W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
85W-89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER
WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
FROM 9N76W TO BEYOND 8N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA....AND E HONDURAS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS NEAR
JAMAICA AND HAITI FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-76W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W
30N60W 30N70W 28N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 65W-70W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 54W-60W.
A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N33W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
32N45W 28N52W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W AT 20
KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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