[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 15W FROM
11N-18N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N50W TO
12N48W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 18N-21N.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ANALYZED ALONG 61W S
OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N57W
TO 14N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE ON THE SURFACE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
ANALYSIS AT 17/0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA ALONG 24N5W SW INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W TO 14N23W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N26W TO
5N38W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 12N-15N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF 8N E OF 26W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 29W-37W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE KANSAS AND DOMINATES MOST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS DISTORTING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW GULF. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SE GEORGIA AND NE
FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NE GULF TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PENSACOLA. AT 17/0900 UTC THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS HAS
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 85W TO
THE FLORIDA COAST AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W TO INLAND
OVER THE N GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NO LONGER
ON THE SURFACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1017
MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MON NIGHT THEN REDEVELOP AS A WEAK HIGH
CENTER OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY
CENTERED NEAR 14N76W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
GUADALOUPE W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE
ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 64W WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVING
ACROSS BARBADOS AND WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA TO SE NICARAGUA.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N OTHERWISE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON
EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE  E
CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU FOLLOWED BY INCREASING TRADES AS ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND FAR
NE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT AT 17/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 26N66W TO A
1014 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W CONTINUING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
71W-79W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ENTIRE
FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N45W SW
ALONG 24N62W TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 22N79W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT N AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ALONG 27N TUE THROUGH THU. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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