[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 18N21W TO
10N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
22N47W TO 11N45W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ANALYZED FROM
15N55W TO 8N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
51W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED ALONG 94W-95W S
OF 23N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA ALONG 23N7W SW INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO 19N19W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N25W TO
6N33W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W 5N45W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM THE S BORDER OF SENEGAL TO 20N IN MAURITANIA AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 14N-19N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-38W AND WITHIN 75
NM OF 10N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE KANSAS AND DOMINATES MOST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS DISTORTING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW GULF. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SE GEORGIA AND NE
FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AT
17/0300 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO
JUST S OF TAMPA CONTINUING NW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PENSACOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N
TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE
ALABAMA BORDER. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S GULF...SEE ABOVE.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND ARE MOVING
W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N88W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT AND BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SW
FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLC COAST SUN THROUGH MON THEN DRIFT S WED
AND THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY
CENTERED NEAR 13N73W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
MARTINIQUE W TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND ARE MOVING W OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND COULD
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9W FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE NE CARIBBEAN LEAVING MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU.
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TUE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT AT 17/0300 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 29N70W TO A
1015 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W CONTINUING OVER
FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 77W-80W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N46W SW ALONG 24N61W THEN W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE 1015 MB LOW WILL
MEANDER OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THU AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT THEN DISSIPATES N OF AREA. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TUE THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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