[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N29W TO
9N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N65W TO 11N69W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
61W-68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO ALONG
97W S OF 24N MOVING NW AT 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 95W-99W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N0W TO 18N3W TO 15N14W TO
12N20W TO 10N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N34W TO 6N50W TO SOUTH
AMERICA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND GEORGIA N OF 30N BETWEEN
84W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 90W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W
PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W OVER
THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AFTER A
HEAVY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVES IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO S NICARAGUA TO BEYOND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND
N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 67W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 77W-87W.
THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND
PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND
JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N26W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG
32N45W 25N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 50W-64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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