[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N29W 10N30W. THE WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N61W 14N63W 10N64W AT
THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 20N AT 13/1200 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AND
MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 24N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 17N12W 10N23W TO 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO
5N42W 5N47W...AND INDISTINCT AFTER 5N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N20W 8N30W 6N40W 6N50W 8N56W
10N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AND MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO 24N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING NEAR THE 95W TROPICAL WAVE...AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
28N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
94W. A BR0AD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND
106W. A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
CENTERED AROUND 21N80W...BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND
21N80W...BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND AND ARE REACHING JAMAICA FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
19N61W 14N63W 10N64W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND
80W...AND FROM THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 10N TO THE NICARAGUA COAST
NEAR 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 29N53W 24N54W TO 20N58W AND 17N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 57W AND 61W...AND FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 66W.
THE FLOW THAT IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 70W IS ANTICYCLONIC. THE
FLOW CROSSES 70W AND BECOMES CYCLONIC...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 21N80W CYCLONIC
CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N44W TO 28N55W
26N67W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N82W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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