[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N25W
TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N57W
TO 8N61W MOVING W AT 20KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS
SEEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HONDURAS ALONG 86W
S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
82W-86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N0W TO 24N13W TO 12N19W TO
6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N.
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W PRODUCING EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
BEYOND S NICARAGUA ALONG 10N73W 11N80W 11N86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND
N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W.
THIS MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AND
PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 67W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 32N46W
27N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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