[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N55W 13N58W 9N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WAVE IF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS INTACT AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 8N46W 4N44W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE 14N52W 8N56W TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND THE PANAMA/NICARAGUA BORDER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR
10N75W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W.  MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N
TO 23N6W TO 20N14W AND 10N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N30W
TO 5N45W...AND INDISTINCT AFTER 5N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 9N21W 7N30W 6N35W 7N42W 5N51W...
AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N82W...TO 27N90W IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 23N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W...IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N77W...
ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THIS PRECIPITATION INCLUDES THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND AROUND PUERTO
RICO. THIS AREA IS TO THE EAST OF THE JAMAICA CYCLONIC CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH THAT ENDS NEAR 24N55W.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR
10N75W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W.  MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS. OTHER PRECIPITATION
THAT HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 84W HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N55W 13N58W 9N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS INTACT AS THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
MOVEMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 70W AND SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N52W 30N52W 26N51W
24N55W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
30N48W 26N63W...TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W 20N37W 15N45W 10N47W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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