[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N52W 8N56W. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
GUYANA...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
7N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 8N46W 4N44W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE 14N52W 8N56W TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...BEYOND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
WATER AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 79W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO FORM TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES
BELIZE AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA...CURVING AROUND HONDURAS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM LAND
TO 23N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N10W TO THE AFRICA COAST
ALONG 14N17W...THROUGH 10N22W TO 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N35W TO 7N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
29N77W...TO WESTERN COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W...TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 83W AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM LAND TO 23N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 96W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION INLAND IN MEXICO...THAT WAS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...HAS WEAKENED
WITH TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
24N TO THE WEST OF 90W IS CYCLONIC...MOVING TOWARD A WEST TEXAS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N102W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA
ALONG 28N...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W...TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO A NORTHERN
NICARAGUA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N85W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATER
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 79W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO FORM TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES BELIZE
AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA...CURVING AROUND HONDURAS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MOVE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL HELP TO CONCENTRATE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N56W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC WAS 0.56 INCHES.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION IS ALONG 14N52W 8N56W...STILL
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N64W 29N69W
29N77W...TO WESTERN COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W...TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
32N/33N BETWEEN 70W AND SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 34N52W 28N54W 22N55W TO 21N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N37W...
TO 30N49W THROUGH 28N72W BEYOND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG
28N/29N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 31N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N32W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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