[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
13N41W TO 5N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ DISCUSSED BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF 16N TO
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST CUBA IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO 20N81W
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS...ALLOWING FOR
ONLY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 19N16W TO 12N20W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 8N34W 9N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-11N E OF 22W. ISOLATED
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ W OF 30W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
W BASIN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
FLOW UP TO 15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA WILL ENTER THE SE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IS
FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NW BASIN S OF 21N W OF 83W DUE TO
SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 74W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS
COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 70W-83W IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS PROVIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 14N BETWEEN
63W-73W ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 71W S OF
16N. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NE CONUS SEABOARD INTO THE N
ATLC OCEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STAYS N OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO
THE FAR WEST DISCUSSION AREA...NOTICED AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 28N W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
27N54W GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 51W-56W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N37W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE AZORES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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