[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Jul 9 18:39:03 CDT 2011


AXNT20 KNHC 092338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG
13N40W TO 6N42W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 39W-44W
AND PRECEDING AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 69W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 13N64W TO 17N71W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N76W 21N77W TO
17N77W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...W ATLC...AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 20N10W S INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 7N26W TO 9M38W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N45W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND IS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST N OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA TO 28N85W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAINLY INLAND OVER FLORIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N95W
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF NEAR
26N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N
TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 84W-91W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 27N AND
29N THROUGH THU OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER LESSER
ANTILLES COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE PANAMA/COAST RICA BORDER TO AN
UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N78W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA W OF 75W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE SW
TIP OF HAITI AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA WILL CONTINUE W
REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY MON. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ON MON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR ST.
AUGUSTINE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC NE BEYOND 32N74W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH EXTENDING FROM 31N79W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
ST. AUGUSTINE INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS N OF MELBOURNE. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N52W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 53W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1028 MB
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N53W ALONG 28N72W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S/CENTRAL
FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM
18N-32N E OF 34W. THE N EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA
WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN NIGHT. THE E/W
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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