[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 16N38W 10N39W
6N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A
DISTINCT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 16N67W 8N68W MOVING
W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA IS ALONG
24N74W 15N76W MOVING NW AT 15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 68W-72W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 24N6W TO
19N11W TO THE COAST AT 17N16W TO 9N16W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO 6N24W TO 9N40W TO 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
15W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO E TEXAS
ALONG 30N PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT N FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 93W-95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
...E GULF...AND FLORIDA...E OF 89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DRIFT NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER E HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
80W-86W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W
FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 77W. EXPECT...MORE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
78W...AND OVER THE TROPICS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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