[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N30W TO
7N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND IS PRECEDING AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ANALYZED ALONG
14N60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W MOVING NW NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN
55W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N69W 20N71W TO
17N72W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-20N COVERING MOST OF HAITI.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 19N10W S INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W 7N23W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 5N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
BETWEEN 5N-12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W AND IS CENTERED NEAR
28N92W WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ANCHORED ALONG THE E FLORIA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. AT THE SURFACE
IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ALONG 27N84W 26N87W TO 23N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF E OF
89W FROM CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF 28N TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/SE TEXAS BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND
HOUSTON TEXAS. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
27N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 28N SUN AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
74W-86W INCLUDING THE SW TIP OF HAITI AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
THE CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HAITI AND THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WILL REACH
ALONG 55W ON MON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W TROPICAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS N OF VERO BEACH AND FROM OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES THROUGH
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC AND 32N52W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MODERATELY
DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 20N-31N E OF
22W. AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED. THE N PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE W ATLC S
OF 24N THROUGH SUN.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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