[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM 12N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 9N59W 6N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. THE ONLY SCATTEROMETER WINDS
FROM 05/1200 UTC APPEARED TO PLACE THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THIS
POSITION EVEN THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE IN THE PAST. IT IS NOT EASY
TO SEE ANY MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY. WE WILL HOPE FOR
MORE AND/OR CLEARER DATA FOR THE NEXT MAP. NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF
GUYANA AND VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W
AND 64W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE 20N49W 10N53W TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MORE
RELATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W
IN WESTERN CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING
AND REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
23N...CURVING TO 23N10W 20N14W 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N20W TO 6N30W 3N36W...STOPPING AT 3N45W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W
AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
1N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE WAVE MAY BE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 26N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN
108W AND 110W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 31N77W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N53W AND REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. A NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 23N84W IN WESTERN
CUBA TO 18N87W TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN NORTHERN
COASTAL JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND SURROUNDING AND
REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W
BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
LAST 24 HOURS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE RANGED FROM
6.92 INCHES AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LAS AMERICAS TO
7.41 INCHES IN SANTO DOMINGO...FROM 6.75 INCHES IN YAMASA
TO 7.2 INCHES IN POLO BARAHONA...AND FROM 7.75 INCHES IN
BOTANICO GARDEN TO 8.15 INCHES IN VICTORIA. A TROPICAL WAVE
BEGAN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON 02 JULY. THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WAVE SEPARATED FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AND IT CONTINUED
ON ITS OWN NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARD ITS
PRESENT POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TRAJECTORY TO ITS PRESENT
LOCATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 22N TO 28N...ACROSS THE
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N53W TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N
TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N56W TO 31N69W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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