[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N46W
TO 11N49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE WAVE PRECEDES A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR 25N. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL LACKING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA NEAR
22N81W TO ERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE ALSO IS
UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTION.
IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT CONVECTION IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE OR THE UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 84W-89W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. OTHER
CONVECTION IS THE AREA WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AT 22N ALONG 25N5W 18N13W 12N16W 10N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N22W ALONG 8N34W 6N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 13N54W 9N61W THAT FORMED FROM A
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
50W-60W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING NEAR 26N91W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 89W FROM 25N-27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE
NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO ERN
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INFLUENCED BY DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WNW CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO
ERN HONDURAS...AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE N OF 16N W OF
71W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WAVE.
THIS AREA ALSO LIES UNDERNEATH A STRETCH OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF CENTRAL CUBA. THIS COMBINATION
IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 75W ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...MUCH OF CUBA...AND JAMAICA. STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS OVER ERN CUBA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC TO NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CUBA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY FLARE UP OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE FAR W ATLC...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM NEAR 27N73W TO
22N77W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
26N W OF 66W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER ERN CUBA. TO THE
E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 26N51W SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 53W FROM 25N-27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE TROUGH FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 27W-53W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
63W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N38W PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 34W WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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