[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 15N38W 10N39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W.

THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 03/1700 UTC
SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 14N22W. THAT
SAME CYCLONIC CENTER WAS NEAR 15N26W IN INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND
04/0500 UTC. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 15N29W AT 04/1015 UTC.
SEEMINGLY IT IS BECOMING LESS EASY TO SPOT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH TIME. CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
THE WESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 30W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 19N79W TO 15N81W
TO 11N82W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N
TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH
HAS COVERED THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
18N...CURVING TO 24N5W 18N8W 16N14W 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N16W TO 8N31W 7N43W 8N49W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N61W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W...CONTINUING ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A 24N88W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N71W TO 28N73W...
DISSIPATING WITH TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SWIRLING NEAR THE 31N70W CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 27N TO 32N
BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 89W FROM 23N TO 27N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH
IS 26N70W TO NORTHERN COASTAL HAITI ALONG 73W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF 94W AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 19N79W TO 15N81W TO 11N82W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO JAMAICA
NEAR 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH HAS COVERED THIS
SAME AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
HAS DIMINISHED. RAINSHOWERS REMAIN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W
AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
24N51W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW OTHER CYCLONIC
CENTERS ALSO ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
35N22W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N30W...
CONTINUING TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
37N49W...TO 30N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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