[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N29W TO
9N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE TOP END OF THE WAVE FORMING A
DRY SLOT ALONG THE SRN HALF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W FROM 9N-17N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N95W TO
14N96W. THE WAVE IS SPAWNING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W IN
THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AT 19N ALONG 24N5W 14N13W 11N18W 11N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N27W ALONG 9N37W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 38W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N92W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
W OF FLORIDA ALONG 86W FROM 25N-29N. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 83W-86W...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND S OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
88W-93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W
WITH VERY LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. THE HIGH IS
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN TEXAS AND WRN
LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING W WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES
THE FAR NW CORNER. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AS WELL AS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N BETWEEN 79W-84W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 11N79W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W
CAUSING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
61W-68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. A CLUSTER IS ALSO S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W. FINALLY...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 62W-66W. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO THE WRN
ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...CUT OFF PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N70W
TO 21N73W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N72W TO 18N69W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 62W-28W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
62W-68W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS NEAR 35N29W...AND A 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 35N47W PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N56W TO NEAR 32N61W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 26N49W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM NEAR 35N48W TO 30N51W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 47W-53W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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