[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 20N27W TO
9N36W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS WELL DEFINED
AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND W OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AXIS WHICH IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
THE MOISTURE SURGE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A DRY SLOT
FORMING AT THE LOWER HALF OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 19N75W
TO 11N76W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.
THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPUN OFF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
N OF HISPANIOLA...SEE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION BELOW. THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
BETWEEN 72W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/S GULF OF MEXICO IS
ANALYZED FROM 21N94W TO 17N96W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA ALONG 22N10W S INTO THE
E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO 12N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 7N37W 6N49W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-56W AND 180 NM S OF
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF ACROSS TAMPA TO AN UPPER LOW N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W AND AT 03/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH OFF IS
IN THE NE GULF FROM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W TO
25N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N-29N E OF 90W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND N OF 27N TO
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W-93W. AT 03/0900 UTC A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR
28N94W. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICO FROM SE
TO NW GIVING THE FAR W GULF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM NEAR
TAMPICO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR N PORTION THROUGH THU. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN S TO
SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED NEAR 16N76W WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA SE TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THE
UPPER HIGH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF
15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-86W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 66W-75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N79W ACROSS COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
TO S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 57W-64W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS W CARIBBEAN SLOWLY NW THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N
W OF 73W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BEYOND
32N71W ALONG 28N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF
76W...AND FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
SPUN OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
24N69W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 2.40 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W SE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N56W E OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
30N68W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W TO 31N66W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
57W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N49W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 46W-51W. THE ATLC E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 AND A 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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