[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 20N25W TO
10N31W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
MOISTURE SURGE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATING A DRY
SLOT FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 21N72W
TO 12N75W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY INTO MON.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
15N-20N W OF 67W TO THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/S GULF OF MEXICO IS
ANALYZED FROM 21N92W TO 17N94W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. CONVECTION INLAND OVER S
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA ALONG 23N10W S TO
20N14W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST S OF DAKAR SENEGAL TO
13N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 10N28W 6N41W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N21W 7N35W 7N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N85W TO AN UPPER LOW N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W AND AT 03/0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH OFF
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TAMPA TO 24N82W. AT 03/0300 UTC A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N E OF 90W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
MEXICO FROM SE TO NW GIVING THE FAR W GULF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A
LINE FROM NEAR LAGUNA MORALES ALONG 21N94W TO CAMPECHE ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FAR N PORTION THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN S TO
SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED NEAR 15N75W WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA SE TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THE
UPPER HIGH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 15N-20N W OF 75W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR
11N72W ALONG 12N77W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THEN SLOWLY NW THROUGH WED. THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON
THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N
W OF 73W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE ALONG 28N76W TO BEYOND
32N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 24N75W SE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N56W JUST E OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 29N69W. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N57W TO 18N60W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM FROM 18N60W
TO 27N66W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N50W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THE ATLC E OF 70W IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.  THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SPLIT FROM THE WAVE AND MOVE NW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON AND TUE
AND THEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS WED AND THU. THE
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL N
ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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