[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N22W...ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N25W TO 10N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE SOLELY VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING UNDER THE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN BELIZE AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
25N TO 23N9W 20N11W AND 20N16W TO 18N19W. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR 8N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N40W...INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N20W 8N26W 8N31W 7N40W 7N45W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM OFF THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 26N93W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 31N71W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N71W TO 27N76W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N79W...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N86W
IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 29N75W 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 92W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN MEXICO ALONG THE GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM 17N TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE EAST OF
100W...AND ALSO POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 100W.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS HOVERING ON TOP OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CONTINUING TOWARD CENTRAL PANAMA.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF 70W...SPIRALING NORTHWARD TO 30N66W. A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO
THE NORTHERN BORDER OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN
59W AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 21N24W TO 15N48W 24N70W BEYOND
32N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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