[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM 19N20W
TO 11N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND AS A BROAD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS PRECEDING A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W/72W
S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SPUN OFF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 22N86W TO
16N89W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 24N10W INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N25W TO
7N29W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W 4N48W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 15N W OF
8W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 16W-23W...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-36W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER
MEXICO GIVING THE GULF W OF 92W N FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS ENHANING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM NE MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE TO S
MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
AND INTO THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 02/0900
UTC THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO 28N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 02/0900
UTC A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N90W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N
GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA GIVING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SW
FLOW ALOFT AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 19N75W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO NEAR 12N77W. THESE
UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THEM ALONG
83W/84W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM TRINIDAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-85W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. NW CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
EARLY TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ACROSS SE CONUS INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE
W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO
32N72W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN
75W-80W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF S FLORIDA S OF VERO BEACH
INCLUDING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS SPUN OFF FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO 21N71W. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN
61W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING ELONGATED SE/NW AND ROUGHLY CENTERED
NEAR 28N53W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N53W TO 32N57W. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N47W EXTENDING AN AXIS SW ALONG
28N65W INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGHS AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 32N MON AND SHIFT S TO
ALONG 31N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net