[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 1N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...
TOWARD THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
27N107W. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE NEXT BIG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS TEXAS DIVIDING
IT IN A NORTH-SOUTH SENSE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS DEPICTED IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AND HAZE ALSO
EXTEND FROM THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N...NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE HAZE AND PRECIPITATION COVER PARTS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 61W...FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 13N BETWEEN
59W AND 64W...AROUND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND
74W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N49W
TO 29N51W TO 22N62W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N47W TO 29N55W AND 26N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N65W 23N68W 20N69W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROUGH
REALLY IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND/OR IT IS
JUST A SEPARATE FEATURE BY ITSELF. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N45W 29N53W
24N65W. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY REACH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS CURRENTLY IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN
60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N44W
TO 26N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE PASSES THROUGH 31N10W TO 22N22W TO 14N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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