[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 5N4W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 2N29W
TO 1N37W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 4N16W 1N22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 14W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH MISSISSIPPI.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST OF
TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...
AND POSSIBLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG
AND HAZE ALSO EXTEND FROM THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N...
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE EAST OF 65W...
WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N70W...FROM THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W...FROM 17N TO 21N
INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W INCLUDING ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N50W
TO 20N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 33N48W TO 31N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N51W TO 26N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N60W TO 23N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N57W BEYOND 32N49W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N57W
25N62W 24N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W TO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N38W TO 27N48W TO 22N59W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N19W 19N28W. THIS TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 21N27W 27N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net