[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG
4N20W 1N29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-47W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
BUT REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 86W SUPPORTING THE
FRONT THAT RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE GULF. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N91W. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN S OF 27N W OF 95W TO INLAND
OVER E MEXICO AND SE TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR E GULF THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE W
GULF. FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE W GULF TUE AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE SE TEXAS
COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY W TO NW FLOW
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W. FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING DEPICTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N75W JUST E OF JAMAICA
TO 13N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
18N76W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 12N82W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA W OF 82W THROUGH E
HONDURAS NEAR 85W AS WELL AS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HONDURAS GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N E OF
66W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N65W
ALONG 25N73W THEN S ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE E
ENTERING THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N59W ALONG 25N69W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N
OF 26N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE COLD FRONT TO
79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N57W AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N25W
SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 26N29W...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
27N21W WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 23N21W TO 19N24W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT E TO 26N19W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN
15W-24W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 24W-30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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