[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 2N20W
1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 3N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BESIDES PORTIONS OF COASTAL
AND INLAND BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE BASIN. SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN W
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO
EXTENDING TO ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A STRIP OF DRY AIR ALOFT SINKS
OVER THE NRN GULF AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH AXIS UP ERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
REMAINING PIECES OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS
S FLORIDA...AND NOW EXTENDS TROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AS OF 2100 UTC. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS S OF 18N
W OF 85W SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINS OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHED SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
FAR W CUBA AND PARALLELS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING
INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COASTLINE NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE COAST. FINALLY AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IS APPROACHING JAMAICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 74W-78W NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NEAR 16N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY STABLE AIR MASS WITH
MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE REINFORCING FRONT IS TO THE W
ALONG 32N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. A
NON-ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED
AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 39N39W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 25N E OF 40W. THIS SYSTEM IS
ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 27N29W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG 25N25W TO 16N33W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
FROM 25N25W TO 25N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 19W-30W.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO
NEAR 43N37W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WHILE A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29W SUPPORTS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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