[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 2N17W
3N32W EQ43W EQ51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS
DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF AS COOLER AIR RUNS OVER THE
WARMER WATER. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AS WINDS ARE
BANKING AGAINST THE COASTLINE FORMING A COASTAL TROUGH ABOUT 100
NM OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AS A
NARROW STRIP OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES SWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH N OF THE AREA. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN BRINGING MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH IS
ATTRIBUTED TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS WRN CUBA AND PARALLELING THE ERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MINOR UPPER TROUGHING IS NOTED FROM ERN CUBA
TO HONDURAS SUPPORTING THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EMBEDDED
WITH THE NE FLOW SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM N OF VENEZUELA
TO S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND E OF NICARAGUA FROM
13N-17N W OF 78W. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W
CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT E OF 70W...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
REMINDER OF THE FRONT. A NON-ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER
E...SURFACE RIDGING IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 31N34W. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N46W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N
OF 28N E OF 40W TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER
ALONG 26N33W 21N39W AND DISSIPATING TO 20N49W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 21N
BETWEEN 27W-31W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 50N43W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE
WHILE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 34W SUPPORTS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net