[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 38W...AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N
TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 20N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO TEXAS AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA...NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT
HAS LEFT FOR GOOD. WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALSO IS TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 92W...AND FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N84W AND 18N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM 18N86W...INTO FAR WESTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE MOSTLY IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...ARE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
OF VENEZUELA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST
OF 70W...FROM THE 13N TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA
ALONG 80W NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA
UNTIL THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT
THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO NOW
IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO A POSITION THAT IS NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N68W...TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 27N70W BEYOND
BERMUDA. THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG 37W PASSING THROUGH
32N TO 20N. IT SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N34W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
28N34W...AND CURVING TO 24N40W AND 22N49W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N49W TO 22N60W. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THIS FRONT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET
TO 15 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELL. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 25N62W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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