[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 4N14W 4N23W 1N37W 1N48W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA FROM LIBERIA TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 9W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 20W-37W AND FROM 5N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF N OF 24N
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SUPPORTING AT 26/2100
UTC A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE SE GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA
THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. THE HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC WITH
LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE
FRONT FROM ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BANK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO S OF TAMPICO AND E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONT
ANCHORED AT 26/2100 UTC BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND W ATLC AT 26/2100 UTC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE W TIP OF CUBA THROUGH 20N86W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. FRESH TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 13N-17N E OF 85W TO ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE REACHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL RELAX SOME
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE SE CONUS AND GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 26/2100 UTC NEAR 32N75W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 70W TO THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT TO OVER S FLORIDA. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W WITH MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA
BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
22N BETWEEN 34W-50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N37W ALONG 25N43W TO 23N54W
WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N62W
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL
E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N38W TO BEYOND
32N33W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A PORTION OF THE W
ATLC W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TO 70W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N53W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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