[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N8W 3N12W 2N23W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE GULF IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB
LOW AT 24/2100 UTC NEAR 28N95W ALONG 23N96W TO 21N97W AND A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE TO THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR VERMILION BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS
BETWEEN 91W-96W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS
LOW/FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO TO ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AT 24/2100 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 21N96W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UPPER
LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 26N E OF 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NE TO THE S CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TUE MORNING THEN
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED
MORNING THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF ON WED AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER N
VENEZUELA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N BELIZE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC TO
50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 60W
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY
A WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
33N79W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC TRAILING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING TO
24N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N68W TO S OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COVER THE W ATLC W OF FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC E OF THE FRONT TO 30W GIVING THE AREA FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
38N19W...29N23W...18N37W ENDING NEAR 6N46W. AT THE SURFACE IS A
COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A 1005 MB LOW IN THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
28N25W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E ALONG 29N20W TO 31N15W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 18W-25W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS INLAND OVER
AFRICA GIVING THE AREA E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SE
OF A LINE FROM 6N43W 18N29W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N15W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE ABOVE LINE TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NW OF THE FRONT SHIFTS NE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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