[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N23W 1S30W 4S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 8W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-26W...AND FROM 1S-2N
BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-5S BETWEEN 35W-41W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-3N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND
S LOUISIANA AT 31N92W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 93W-97W DRIFTING
NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS LOW. 15 KT
E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. 20 KT
NW-N WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
50'S OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHILE IN THE 70'S ARE OVER S FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE SE LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS HAS DISSIPATED. RESIDUAL RAIN IS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND E CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W.
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR...THE SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N51W TO N OF
HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N60W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1008 MB LOW HAS FORMED W
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N26W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E AND EXTEND FROM 30N43W TO THE S BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 1003 MB AND MOVE E TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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