[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W CONTINUING SW ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AT SURFACE...RIDGING COVERS THE AREA...
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR
33N87W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE SW BASIN INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 93W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH IS WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 19N78W TO 16N79W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WITH CONVECTION LINGERING N OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN MON
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC...ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W...CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N69W 22N78W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH SEAS UP
TO 9 FT. SIMILAR WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N TO 75W WITH
SEAS 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 170 NM AHEAD
OF IT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
ERN ATLC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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