[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 5N19W 3N26W 1N33W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-40W AND FROM
4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N80W ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N E OF 85W TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF. A JET STREAM COVERS THE E GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT N OF
23N E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT
NOW DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER S
LOUISIANA AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ALSO
DOMINATE THE GULF WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING
THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 94W. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT
WILL REACH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MON MORNING
WHERE IT WILL STALL AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF
TEXAS LATE MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF
HAVANA ALONG 18N86W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
E OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A WEST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 19N77W ACROSS CENTRAL
JAMAICA ALONG 16N79W TO 12N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS
SUN MORNING THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL REACH W OF JAMAICA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
SUN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 72W WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING N OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W
ALONG 28N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT
S OF 26N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 135 KT IS N OF 25N
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA TO 64W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 40W TO 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO BEYOND
32N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE
ATLC S OF 26N E OF 60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWIFTLY NE
EXTENDING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N54W TO HISPANIOLA BY SUN
EVENING CONTINUING E ON MON THEN DISSIPATING ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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