[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS AND SUPPORTS
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF
COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. MOSTLY DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
STATIONARY FRONT PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EASTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N68W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. EARLIER MORNING
ASCAT PASSES INDICATED E-NE TRADES IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 17N
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A
LINE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N76W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 66W...AND OVER HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WITH
AXIS ALONG 75W THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED NEAR 35N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
COASTLINE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM
THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST
NEAR 27N80W. WHILE W-SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES OVER MUCH
OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 70W...THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH
GENERALLY LACK AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WELL EAST OF
THE FRONT LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-72W. THIS LOW AND ENTIRE
AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC IS
ANALYZED TO 32N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W-SW TO
30N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN/RAMOS




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