[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W
ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W ENDING IN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE FROM 1S TO 5S BETWEEN 26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE GULF...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF IT
MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COMPLEX 1009
MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 29N84W. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS QUICKLY
MOVING NE OUT OF THE AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA
ALONG 26N81W 22N83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
TO THIS BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED BY MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT ABOUT 18 KT. ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS FOUND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN
85W AND 89W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THIS
AREA...FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N89W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE
BASIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING
THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC W OF 76W...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
ANALYZED FROM 31N61W TO 25N69W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N41W
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO HINDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
32N22W TO 28N26W. THEREFORE...JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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