[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N26W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N16W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 3S TO 1N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS INFLUENCES THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF
88W. THE ACTUAL TROUGH RUNS ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA. A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IS IN TEXAS...EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS...TO THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST...TO SOUTH TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF 23N97W 29N90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N85W 23N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE END
OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STOPS NEAR 31N75W...AND CONTINUES
TO 29N79W...CROSSING TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N82W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MOSTLY DRY AIR SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. IT IS MOVING AROUND
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN BRAZIL. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N NEAR GRENADA TO 16N NEAR
GUADELOUPE BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W
AND 70W BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND PUERTO RICO...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE NICARAGUA/
PANAMA BORDER. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW
IS TURNING AROUND BROAD WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT SPANS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N75W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N75W AND TO 29N79W...
CROSSING TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N82W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
74W AND 80W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...THAT HAS SEPARATED
ITSELF FROM THE OTHER PART OF THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY ENDS NEAR
31N28W...STARTS NEAR 29N43W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N51W. A STILL
ACTIVE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N51W TO 28N62W. A WARM
FRONT GOES FROM 28N62W TO 28N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
28N68W TO 23N73W...JUST OFF MAYAGUANA AND THE ACKLINS IN THE
BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N34W...AND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N49W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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