[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 3N17W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 27W39W THEN S INTO BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH
A SWATH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO OVER MEXICO
NEAR TUXPAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DENOTING A WIND SHIFT IS ALSO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS INTO
THE GULF TO 26N84W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N88W AND A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NE ALABAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE FAR NW GULF
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND AS WELL. HOWEVER...SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF
W OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N95W. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AND EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT
AS LOWER PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
80W-84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE TRADES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN BY MON THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC TO 30W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOSTLY S OF
24N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DENOTING A WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM
30N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS S TO ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N30W 28N50W TO 26N60W WHERE IT
RETREATS N AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 26N66W TO 24N72W CONTINUING SW
OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 22N75W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N
OF FRONT TO 30N BETWEEN 50W-70W AND FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
20W-40W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC...SPLIT
BY THE FRONT...WITH A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N51W
AND A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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