[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N10W TO 03N30W TO 03N40W TO
00N50W NEAR THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 25W TO 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N82W TO 22N90W TO 19N83W.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BUOYS OVER THE NW
GULF ARE REPORTING 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS...AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. LOW CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH...AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA BY WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A
SHIP RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE OVERALL WIND FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
YESTERDAY...ALLOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BUOYS
AND ASCAT DATA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KT WINDS...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED BRINGING 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES SE AND REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

N ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDED FROM 32N77W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 12Z. A 14Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N
W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SW THROUGH 48
HOURS...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND SLOW AS IT SHIFTS
E...REACHING FROM 31N71W TO 25N80 WED AND TO 29N65W TO 20N75W BY
EARLY THU. FURTHER EAST...FROM ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
32N41W TO 23N56W AT 12Z...AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS NE. 14Z ASCAT DATA SHOWED GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES AREA WAS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N16W AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE. THIS WAS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF 20
TO 25 KT WINDS S OF 25N E OF 30W. THE ENHANCED TRADES CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ. TRADE WINDS S
OF 25N W OF 30W HAVE DIMINISHED IN EXTENT SINCE YESTERDAY AS
HIGH PRES N OF THE HAD SHIFTED EAST. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR AS HIGH PRES 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
BERMUDA STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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