[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W 6N16W 7N25W 4N36W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-32W AND FROM 1N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING REMAINS THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
AND SE CONUS WHICH IS GIVING PARTS OF SE WINTER WEATHER THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NE FROM N ALABAMA
THROUGH GEORGIA AND TO ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N GULF W OF A LINE CAPE SAN BLAS
FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW THAT AS OF
10/0900 UTC IS IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N87W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING S TO 23N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF THE 84W TO OVER
NE FLORIDA. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NE AND BE IN
THE W ATLC MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXITING THE GULF ON LATER TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
67W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W
INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS N OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS THAT
GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG BY WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW ATLC
JUST S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING TO 32N TRAILING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG
27N65W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W WHERE IT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS TO
THE E OF THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N65W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF
29N. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER
LEVELS ANCHORED NEAR 25N29W WITH A SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH NEAR
32N28W THUS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THE ATLC E OF FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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