[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 5N22W
1N38W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BISECT THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO
NEAR 26N88W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR
CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS DRY IN NATURE WITH LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS SRN TEXAS. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NOW INTO THE NW GULF. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S-SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WRN TEXAS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EWD...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES COASTLINE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE BASIN.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN BRAZIL.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 17N69W TO NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME ENHANCED LEVELS
OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SOME PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
SUPPORTING AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT TRADEWINDS TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC DISSIPATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DISSIPATED
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N53W SW TO NRN HAITI NEAR
20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS.
A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND IT ALONG 32N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS
CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-74W. FARTHER E...BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1027 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR
31N32W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N
OF ERN BRAZIL TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING DOWN ERN SPAIN AND E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS WELL AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RANGING FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS WRN AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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